Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Oct 2026

Will Jim Chalmers ask the tax office to keep taking credit cards?

BinaryResolves 1 Dec 2026
Hunch20%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 1 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count: in all three past reversals a minister or the Treasury acted in public, but that is a count among reversals only, not a measure of this question.

Hunch. Chalmers has said nothing in public so far, while his assistant minister Andrew Charlton has defended the tax office's decision.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if by 1 December 2026 Treasurer Jim Chalmers publicly asks or directs the ATO to keep credit card payments, delay the change or soften it, in a media release or transcript on ministers.treasury.gov.au. Guardian Australia and Reuters reports of his words are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
In three of four UK plans criticised before they started, the office dropped or paused the plan. The one that went ahead was HMRC's 2018 end to credit card payments.

We looked for cases where a government office announced a limit on the public with a start date ahead, and faced public criticism before that date. We found none in Australia on open pages, and four in the UK, three of them at the tax office HMRC. Three times the office dropped or paused the plan before it started.