Hunch. The Greens set their price on 11 October, a right to sue and revenue-based fines, and on 15 October Anika Wells said the government would contemplate the first of them, so a deal with text changes looks more likely than a clean pass.
The amendments market resolves on the same bill page and is void if the bill has not passed both houses by the end of the last sitting day of 2026. If it has passed, YES if the Senate passed it with amendments from any party or the lower chamber had to agree to Senate amendments, and NO if the Senate passed it unchanged. Guardian Australia and ABC News are the backups.
We looked for cases where an Australian government introduced a bill in the last eight weeks of the parliamentary year, wanted it passed that year, and the Senate sent it to a committee due to report within two weeks of the last sitting day. We found six such bills from 2013 to 2024. Four passed both houses before the year ended, and two did not.