Hunch. The Greens said on 14 October they would pass the bill if pensioners are carved out, and Mark Butler did not rule that out the next day.
The Senate market resolves on the bill's page on the Parliament of Australia website (bill r7564) and the Journals of the Senate: YES if by the end of the Senate's sitting on 26 November 2026 the Senate has passed the third reading of the Private Health Insurance Amendment (Modernising the Private Health Insurance Rebate) Bill 2026 [No. 2], with or without amendments, or of the first bill restored with the same measure, and NO if it has not. Guardian Australia and BBC News settle it if the parliament pages are silent.
We looked for cases where the Australian Senate had rejected a government bill that cut a payment or benefit to save money, and the same government brought the bill back in the same parliament. We found six such bills since 1996. The Senate passed one of them before the end of that year, in 2014, after the government agreed a third text with the senators holding the balance of power. Across all 26 bills brought back after a Senate rejection, whatever their subject, nine passed, four of them within 42 days.