Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d'Or at the London ceremony on 26 October 2026, so he finished first, as BBC Sport, The Guardian and ESPN report; the organiser's site blocks scripts.
History. No count from the cases. This question comes from the case for a player without the World Cup: his goals.
Hunch. ESPN named Kane the favourite on 8 September after 72 goals for club and country in 2025-26, which he called his best season by far.
Resolves on the same ranking: YES if Harry Kane is first, second or third. Fourth or lower resolves NO. If Kane is outside the top three only because of a shared third place, the market is void. ESPN and BBC Sport are the backup.
We looked for cases where a World Cup fell inside the period the Ballon d'Or judged, only journalists voted, and players from the champion team were allowed to win it. We found nine, from 1966 to 2023. A player from the champion team won in seven. In the other two, 1974 and 2018, the winner came from the team that lost the final.