On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, so it did not hold at 2.25%, according to the Bank's press release and a Reuters report carried by Al Jazeera.
Hunch. Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September after 42,000 in August, which makes a rise less likely than the warning in September suggested.
The hold market resolves on the Bank of Canada rate announcement of 28 October 2026 at 9:45 Eastern Time: YES if the target for the overnight rate stays at 2.25%, and NO if it moves either way. Reuters and BBC reports of the decision are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Canada kept its rate and said the risk to inflation was on the upside, then met again as planned. We found ten such meetings since 2007, out of about 204 rate decisions since 2001. Five of them came in one run in 2023 and 2024.