On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, above 2.25%, according to the Bank's press release and a Reuters report carried by Al Jazeera.
Hunch. Two months of job losses came after the governor said the bank would not raise rates if price pressures stayed contained.
The rise market resolves on the same announcement: YES if the rate is set above 2.25%, and NO if it is held or cut. Reuters and BBC are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Canada kept its rate and said the risk to inflation was on the upside, then met again as planned. We found ten such meetings since 2007, out of about 204 rate decisions since 2001. Five of them came in one run in 2023 and 2024.