On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 2.5% rather than cutting it, according to the Bank's press release and a Reuters report carried by Al Jazeera.
Hunch. Jobs fell for a second month, but on 2 September the bank said the risk of higher inflation had grown.
The cut market resolves on the same announcement: YES if the rate is set below 2.25%, and NO if it is held or raised. Reuters and BBC are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Canada kept its rate and said the risk to inflation was on the upside, then met again as planned. We found ten such meetings since 2007, out of about 204 rate decisions since 2001. Five of them came in one run in 2023 and 2024.