Hunch. On 23 October the bank raised its forecast for the rate, and the governor said conditions must stay tight for longer.
The hold market resolves on the Bank of Russia press release of 18 December 2026 at 13:30 Moscow time: YES if the key rate stays at 14.00%, and NO if it moves either way. If cbr.ru cannot be opened, Reuters and BBC reports of the decision settle it.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Russia stopped after at least three rate cuts in a row, kept its rate for one or two meetings, then met again as planned. We found ten such meetings since 2015, in four separate runs of cuts between 2015 and 2023. The bank has set a key rate only since September 2013.