Hunch. The bank raised its forecast for the rate on 23 October and gave no sign of room for a larger cut.
The half-point market resolves on the same press release: YES if the key rate is cut to 13.50% or lower, and NO if it is kept, raised or cut by less. Reuters and BBC are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Russia stopped after at least three rate cuts in a row, kept its rate for one or two meetings, then met again as planned. We found ten such meetings since 2015, in four separate runs of cuts between 2015 and 2023. The bank has set a key rate only since September 2013.