Hunch. On 30 October the Bank of Japan said underlying inflation is now generally in line with its 2% goal, after saying in June and September only that it was getting close.
The December market resolves on the Bank of Japan statement after its meeting of 17 and 18 December 2026: YES if the bank keeps the overnight rate at around 1.25%, and NO if it moves it up or down by any amount. If the meeting moves, its decision counts, and if there is no decision before the next meeting it resolves YES, with Reuters and the Financial Times as the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Japan raised its rate and kept it the same at the next meeting. Then we checked what it did at the meeting after that, and how many meetings passed before its next rise. We found eight such meetings since 1998, when a new law on the bank came in and it began to publish each board vote. The bank has raised its rate nine times since then.