Hunch. On 30 October the Bank of Japan said underlying inflation is now generally in line with its 2% goal, and one board member already voted for a rise to 1.5%.
The March market resolves YES if the Bank of Japan raises its overnight rate by any amount from 31 October 2026 to 18 March 2027, at its meetings ending 18 December, 22 January or 18 March or at any unscheduled meeting in that time, and NO if there is no rise by the end of 18 March 2027. It settles on the bank's statements at boj.or.jp, with Reuters and the Financial Times as the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of Japan raised its rate and kept it the same at the next meeting. Then we checked what it did at the meeting after that, and how many meetings passed before its next rise. We found eight such meetings since 1998, when a new law on the bank came in and it began to publish each board vote. The bank has raised its rate nine times since then.