Hunch. On 26 October his own Liberal Party said it recognises the result, which no loser's party did in the ten earlier elections, so he stands alone.
The concession market resolves YES if by 5 January 2027 Flávio Bolsonaro has not said in public, himself, that he accepts the election result or a court ruling on it, as quoted by Reuters and confirmed by the Guardian or Al Jazeera. A statement by the Liberal Party or its leader does not count, and if Reuters does not open, the Guardian and Al Jazeera settle it together.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost to the sitting president by a wide margin, refused to accept the result and took it to a court. We found ten such elections since 2012, eight of them in Africa. Brazil’s own 2022 vote is not one of them, because Jair Bolsonaro lost by less than two points.