Hunch. On 26 October Folha reported that his allies and lawyers persuaded him to drop the plan to annul the vote, telling him his argument was legally weak.
The court filing market resolves YES if between 27 October 2026 and 5 January 2027 Flávio Bolsonaro, his campaign or his coalition files a case at the Superior Electoral Court or the Supreme Court to annul the 2026 election or disqualify Lula's ticket, as shown on the court websites and confirmed by Reuters or the Guardian. Cases filed during the campaign do not count, and Reuters and the Guardian settle it together if the court sites do not open.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost to the sitting president by a wide margin, refused to accept the result and took it to a court. We found ten such elections since 2012, eight of them in Africa. Brazil’s own 2022 vote is not one of them, because Jair Bolsonaro lost by less than two points.