Hunch. When his father challenged the 2022 result, the same electoral court gave his coalition 24 hours to bring its full audit or see the complaint rejected.
The ruling market counts only if a case from the court filing market is filed by 5 January 2027, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if the Superior Electoral Court or the Supreme Court rejects, accepts or closes that case before 5 January, and NO if there is no ruling by then, including when the case is withdrawn without one.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost to the sitting president by a wide margin, refused to accept the result and took it to a court. We found ten such elections since 2012, eight of them in Africa. Brazil’s own 2022 vote is not one of them, because Jair Bolsonaro lost by less than two points.