Hunch. The electoral court has already proclaimed Lula the winner, and his rival's own party said on 26 October that it recognises that result.
The overturn market resolves on the websites of the Superior Electoral Court and the Supreme Court: YES if before 5 January 2027 either court annuls the 2026 presidential election, disqualifies Lula's ticket or declares another winner, as confirmed by Reuters or the Guardian. It resolves NO if Lula takes office on 5 January with the result unchanged.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost to the sitting president by a wide margin, refused to accept the result and took it to a court. We found ten such elections since 2012, eight of them in Africa. Brazil’s own 2022 vote is not one of them, because Jair Bolsonaro lost by less than two points.