Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Brazil's rate committee vote unanimously on 4 November?

BinaryResolves 4 Nov 2026
History5 of 5
Hunch75%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Copom statement of 4 November 2026 lists all seven voting members, led by Gabriel Galipolo, in one group for the decision to hold the Selic at 13.75%, with no second group, and Reuters reports the vote was unanimous.

Resolved 4 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The 26 October fall of the real puts a real choice between a pause and a cut before the committee, and in May 2024 a choice over the size of a cut split it five to four.

How this resolves

The unanimous vote market resolves on the same statement: YES if every voting member is listed for the decision, whatever it is, and NO if at least one member voted another way. If the page does not open, Al Jazeera and BBC News reports settle it together.

The pattern behind it

5 of 5
All five times the committee cut again by the same step as at its two meetings before. Before none of them had the real lost more than 1.3% in two weeks.

We looked for cases where Brazil’s rate committee had cut its rate at its two meetings before, by no more than 0.50 point each time, and had warned that a weaker real could push up prices. We found five such meetings among 249 since March 1999. Three came this year and two in late 2023.