The Copom statement of 4 November 2026 again lists a persistently weaker exchange rate among the upside risks for inflation, as in its September statement; Reuters confirms the statement said risks were tilted to the upside.
Hunch. The bank named a persistently weaker real as a risk to inflation in each of its five statements from 18 March to 16 September 2026.
The warning market resolves on the same statement: YES if it lists a weaker or depreciated real among the risks of higher inflation, and NO if it does not, while a dollar rate used only in the forecast or words in the minutes of 10 November do not count. If the page does not open, Al Jazeera and BBC News reports settle it together.
We looked for cases where Brazil’s rate committee had cut its rate at its two meetings before, by no more than 0.50 point each time, and had warned that a weaker real could push up prices. We found five such meetings among 249 since March 1999. Three came this year and two in late 2023.