Hunch. Opinion polls in late September put Steve Hilton 20 points or more behind Xavier Becerra.
The margin market resolves on the California Secretary of State's certified Statement of Vote, due on 11 December 2026: YES if the winner's share of the vote minus the runner-up's share is more than 18.4 percentage points, rounded to one decimal place, and NO if it is 18.4 or less. If the certified result is late, the Secretary of State's final statewide totals settle it, with The Guardian and Reuters as backups.
We looked for cases where California chose a governor after one party had won at least three governor elections in a row, while the US president came from the other party. We found five such elections since 1914: 1914, 1934, 1938, 1994 and 1998. In each one there were more than two names on the ballot.