History. 6 of 7: Arizona 2004, Mississippi 2011, Missouri 2016, North Carolina 2018, Nebraska 2022, Nevada 2024 passed; Arizona 2022 did not.
Hunch. A UC Berkeley poll had Prop 39 trailing by 13 points, in a state whose governing Democratic party campaigns against it.
The Prop 39 market resolves on the Statement of Vote that the California Secretary of State certifies on 11 December 2026 at sos.ca.gov, with The Guardian and BBC News as backup. YES if Proposition 39 passed, and NO if it failed.
We looked for cases where voters across a whole US state decided, on general election day, whether people must show ID to vote. We found seven with official results, from 2004 to 2024. All were in other states, because California has never voted on this. Votes that state lawmakers themselves put to voters are left out.