History. 5 of 7: Arizona 2004 55.6%, North Carolina 2018 55.5%, Missouri 2016 63.0%, Nebraska 2022 65.5%, Nevada 2024 73.2%; Arizona 2022 49.6%; Mississippi 2011 share not found, counted as no.
Hunch. A UC Berkeley poll had Prop 39 13 points behind, so a yes of 55% or more would need a large swing by 3 November.
The 55% market resolves on the same Statement of Vote: YES if yes votes are 55.00% or more of all yes and no votes on Proposition 39. Anything lower, or a failed measure, resolves NO.
We looked for cases where voters across a whole US state decided, on general election day, whether people must show ID to vote. We found seven with official results, from 2004 to 2024. All were in other states, because California has never voted on this. Votes that state lawmakers themselves put to voters are left out.