Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Oct 2026

Will Dmitry Bivol keep his titles against Callum Smith on 12 Dec?

BinaryResolves 12 Dec 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch87%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 12 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 5: Holmes, Ugás, Lara and Barrios kept their titles (Barrios on a draw); Tiozzo lost his in 2000.

Hunch. In May, Bivol came back from back surgery and beat Michael Eifert 120-107 on all three cards in the same city, Yekaterinburg.

How this resolves

The title market resolves on the WBA news page, confirmed by the BBC Sport fight report: YES if Dmitry Bivol is still champion after the fight on 12 December 2026, by a win or a draw, and NO if Callum Smith wins in any way. A no contest, or no fight on 12 December, makes it VOID, with ESPN and The Guardian as the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five champions fighting at home kept their titles against a challenger who had lost a fight for two belts and had not fought for 18 months. In 2000 Fabrice Tiozzo lost his.

We looked for cases where a world champion fought at home against a challenger who had already lost a fight for two or more world belts and had not fought for at least 18 months. We found five such fights since 1980, four of them in Las Vegas. Manny Pacquiao was the challenger in two.