History. 4 of 4 polling days where the governing Liberals stood (seven by-elections): they ended the day with as many seats as before.
Hunch. The Liberals have candidates in all four seats won by other parties, and on 1 November CBC wrote that the Conservative in Brantford-Brant South already faces an uphill battle against them.
The seat count market resolves on Elections Canada's results for the six by-elections of 7 December 2026: YES if Liberal candidates win exactly two of the six seats, any two, and NO if they win none, one, or three or more. Each seat counts when all its polls have reported, or after a recount if one is held, and CBC News and The Globe and Mail settle it if the official page does not open.
We looked for cases where Canada filled an empty seat in parliament by a by-election while the government had a majority of ten seats or fewer, and had already taken a seat from the opposition at an earlier by-election in the same parliament. We found nine such by-elections, from 1998 to 2000, on five polling days under the same Liberal government.