History. 4 of 5 by-elections in opposition seats: the seat stayed with the party that held it; once it went to another opposition party (Sherbrooke, 1998).
Hunch. A long-time local Conservative backed by the seat's former Conservative MP is running on his own, and on 1 November CBC wrote that the party's candidate already faces an uphill battle against the Liberals.
The Brantford-Brant South market resolves on Elections Canada's result for that seat on 7 December 2026: YES if the official Conservative candidate wins, NO if anyone else wins, including a candidate without a party. The result counts when all polls have reported, or after a recount if one is held, with CBC News and The Globe and Mail as the backup.
We looked for cases where Canada filled an empty seat in parliament by a by-election while the government had a majority of ten seats or fewer, and had already taken a seat from the opposition at an earlier by-election in the same parliament. We found nine such by-elections, from 1998 to 2000, on five polling days under the same Liberal government.