History. 2 of 4: TransPennine Express 2023 and HMP Birmingham 2019. History lands on 50, so this market is outside the public accuracy count.
Hunch. The same minister ended Capita's Royal Mail pensions contract on 22 April, and 277 payments were still over 100 days old on 30 September.
The contract market resolves on Cabinet Office and ministerial statements on gov.uk and in Hansard, checked at 10:00 on 28 December 2026: YES if by the end of 26 December the government ends Capita's civil service pension contract, ends it early by agreement, moves the service elsewhere or decides not to keep Capita. A new fix plan, payments kept back or a breach notice without an ending resolve NO, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK government had a private company running a public service, the service failed, and the government tied its next decision to a review with a known date. We found four from 2018 to 2023. Three were railways and one was a prison.