Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Nov 2026

Will Welsh ministers hand the data centre back to Cardiff by 31 Dec?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History0 of 4
Hunch10%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 0 of 4: of the four past decisions still open on day 76, none was handed back by day 129. The one late hand-back came on day 179.

Hunch. Cardiff's planning committee votes on 12 November, and twice before Welsh ministers handed a plan back to the council within seven weeks of a council vote.

How this resolves

The hand-back market resolves on Welsh Government statements on gov.wales: YES if by 31 December 2026 ministers say they will not take over the Cardiff data centre plan and the decision stays with Cardiff Council. If they take it over or have not decided, it resolves NO, and BBC Wales and WalesOnline are the backups.

The pattern behind it

3 of 9
In three of nine past decisions on whether to take over a planning decision, Welsh ministers took it themselves, each on day 85 or later. Six times they left it to the local body.

We looked for cases where Welsh ministers decided whether to take a planning decision away from a council or a national park. We found nine such decisions since 2011. Ministers took over three and left six to the local body. Each takeover came on day 85 or later. Days count from the first public step, such as the order not to grant permission or a council vote. Five of the six hand-backs came within 61 days. (BBC; BBC; BBC)