The confirmed total of 636 falls in the 600 or more band; the Monday-evening figure of 560 was stated by the Met to be provisional and likely to rise (Metropolitan Police, 1 Sep 2026).
Resolves on the same Met final update, placing the confirmed two-day total in one of the four bands. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
We took every Carnival on the streets since 2015 where the Met's final arrest total is on record. We used the Met's own statement where there was one, and the Guardian's report of the Met's figure where there was not. The question is the one the first market asks: did arrests pass 400? The 2018 and 2019 totals are left out because we found no trusted record of them. There was no Carnival in 2020 or 2021. That leaves seven years, all shown here.