Resolves on london.gov.uk, the website of the borough concerned, or gov.uk. YES if a published commitment of public money specifically for the 2027 Notting Hill Carnival, from the Mayor of London, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster or a government department, is dated on or before 29 November 2026. Statements of intent to discuss funding do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
We took every Carnival on the streets since 2015 where the Met's final arrest total is on record. We used the Met's own statement where there was one, and the Guardian's report of the Met's figure where there was not. The question is the one the first market asks: did arrests pass 400? The 2018 and 2019 totals are left out because we found no trusted record of them. There was no Carnival in 2020 or 2021. That leaves seven years, all shown here.