Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will the UK publish a new climate plan with its watchdog reply?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History2 of 4
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The order that moved the deadline gives only a new cabinet as the reason and names no plan, and the last time that happened, in 2024, no plan came.

How this resolves

The plan market resolves on gov.uk: YES if by the end of 17 December 2026 the government lays its reply to the Climate Change Committee's 2026 report and publishes a new government-wide plan for meeting its carbon budgets on the same day, and NO if there is no reply by then or the reply comes without such a plan, with a plan for one sector such as power or heating not counting. BBC News and the Guardian settle it if gov.uk cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

2 of 4
In two of four times since 2022 that the UK government delayed its reply to the climate watchdog, a new national climate plan came out the same day, and twice the reply came alone.

We looked for cases where a UK government used its power under the Climate Change Act to move the deadline for its reply to the climate watchdog. We found four such orders, one a year from 2022 to 2025, and none before 2022. Each time the reply came before the new deadline, between zero and five days early. Two of the four times, a new national climate plan came out on the same day. (legislation.gov.uk)