Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will the UK reply to its climate watchdog by 17 Dec?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch93%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Ministers chose 17 December themselves so the reply lands before the winter recess, and every delayed reply since 2022 arrived on time.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the government reply to the Climate Change Committee's 2026 progress report is laid before Parliament no later than 17 December 2026, as shown on the gov.uk page and the document itself, and NO if it is not, including when a new order moves the deadline again. BBC News and the Guardian are the backups.

The pattern behind it

2 of 4
In two of four times since 2022 that the UK government delayed its reply to the climate watchdog, a new national climate plan came out the same day, and twice the reply came alone.

We looked for cases where a UK government used its power under the Climate Change Act to move the deadline for its reply to the climate watchdog. We found four such orders, one a year from 2022 to 2025, and none before 2022. Each time the reply came before the new deadline, between zero and five days early. Two of the four times, a new national climate plan came out on the same day. (legislation.gov.uk)