Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Aug 2026

Does Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election on 13 Aug 2026 with more than 50% of votes cast?

BinaryResolves 14 Aug 2026
History89%
Hunch89%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Farage held Clacton with 22,239 votes (63.34%) against Count Binface 9,455 (26.93%), turnout 44% (Guardian). Independent reports 63%, over 1,000 more votes than 2024.

Resolved 14 Aug 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the returning officer's official declaration for the Clacton constituency following the 13 August 2026 poll, as recorded by the Electoral Commission (Tier A). YES if Nigel Farage's share of votes cast is above 50.0 per cent; exactly 50.0 per cent resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, The Guardian and The Independent settle it.

The pattern behind it

17 of 19
Both losses came when a major party machine organised against the returning incumbent: Rumbold's Conservatives in 1982, Mallon's SDLP in 1986. No such machine is standing in Clacton. The nearest precedent is Davis in 2008, who took 71.6% when the big parties stayed home.

Most won their seat back, and both who lost faced a big party. We looked for MPs since 1982 who resigned their seat and stood again in the by-election they caused. We found nineteen.