Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Aug 2026

Who wins the Clacton by-election on 13 August?

Multiple choiceResolves 13 Aug 2026
Hunch
Nigel Farage90%
Count Binface8%
Any other candidate2%
Your forecast
  • Nigel Farage
  • Count Binface
  • Any other candidate
Resolved
Resolved: Nigel Farage

Farage held Clacton with 22,239 votes against Count Binface's 9,455 on a 44 per cent turnout (The Guardian, 14 August 2026; The Independent, 14 August 2026).

Resolved 13 Aug 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the same official declaration, on the candidate with the most votes. If that source has not published in time, The Guardian and The Independent settle it.

The pattern behind it

17 of 19
Both losses came when a major party machine organised against the returning incumbent: Rumbold's Conservatives in 1982, Mallon's SDLP in 1986. No such machine is standing in Clacton. The nearest precedent is Davis in 2008, who took 71.6% when the big parties stayed home.

Most won their seat back, and both who lost faced a big party. We looked for MPs since 1982 who resigned their seat and stood again in the by-election they caused. We found nineteen.