Does Count Binface beat 20% of the vote in Clacton?
BinaryResolves 13 Aug 2026
Hunch42%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Binface took 9,455 votes, 26.93 per cent of those cast, clearing the 20 per cent line (The Guardian, 14 August 2026; The Independent, 14 August 2026).
Resolved 13 Aug 2026
How this resolves
Resolves on the official candidate vote totals in the same declaration; exactly 20.0 per cent resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, The Guardian and The Independent settle it.
The pattern behind it
17 of 19
Both losses came when a major party machine organised against the returning incumbent: Rumbold's Conservatives in 1982, Mallon's SDLP in 1986. No such machine is standing in Clacton. The nearest precedent is Davis in 2008, who took 71.6% when the big parties stayed home.
Most won their seat back, and both who lost faced a big party. We looked for MPs since 1982 who resigned their seat and stood again in the by-election they caused. We found nineteen.
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