Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Nov 2026

Will Comey's leak case be dismissed before 1 Jan 2027?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History0%
Hunch18%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Judge Trevor McFadden heard Comey's emergency request on the same day, 9 October, and heard the motion to dismiss just two weeks after it was filed.

How this resolves

The dismissal market resolves YES if by 23:59 US Eastern time on 31 December 2026 the whole of United States v. Comey (No. 1:26-cr-00229) in the federal court in Washington has ended, including any grand jury charge over the same leak that replaces it, by a court order or because prosecutors drop it; ending only some charges, a plea deal, a verdict, a pause, or ending the prosecutor's charge while a grand jury charge over the same leak is waiting counts as NO. The court docket settles it, confirmed by The Guardian or BBC News, and two of The Guardian, BBC News and The Independent settle it if the docket cannot be opened.

The pattern behind it

3 of 9
Three of nine times a US federal judge threw out a charge a prosecutor had filed alone before the time limit ran out, and six times the judge refused.

We looked for cases where a US prosecutor filed a charge alone, without a grand jury, before the legal time limit ran out, and the person charged asked a federal judge to throw it out. We found nine such rulings from 1997 to 2023. Judges refused six times and threw out the charge three times. Four of the nine came from one court in southern Florida.