Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Nov 2026

Will Judge McFadden rule on ending Comey's charge by 8 Jan 2027?

BinaryResolves 8 Jan 2027
History71%
Hunch81%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 8 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

Hunch. Judge McFadden set a one-week schedule for the written arguments and heard the motion on 30 October, two weeks after it was filed.

How this resolves

The ruling market resolves YES if by 23:59 US Eastern time on 8 January 2027 the court docket shows an order by Judge Trevor McFadden that grants, partly grants or refuses Comey's request of 16 October to throw out the charge, or sets it aside because the case has ended. The Guardian or BBC News confirm it, and two of The Guardian, BBC News and The Independent settle it if the docket cannot be opened.

The pattern behind it

3 of 9
Three of nine times a US federal judge threw out a charge a prosecutor had filed alone before the time limit ran out, and six times the judge refused.

We looked for cases where a US prosecutor filed a charge alone, without a grand jury, before the legal time limit ran out, and the person charged asked a federal judge to throw it out. We found nine such rulings from 1997 to 2023. Judges refused six times and threw out the charge three times. Four of the nine came from one court in southern Florida.