Hunch. The government says every area will have an outcome by early next year, but two areas have waited since July 2026 with "further time is required".
The all-areas market resolves YES if by the end of 31 March 2027, UK time, every one of the same 15 areas has a minded-to or final decision announced in the Commons or on GOV.UK. It resolves NO if even one area is still waiting, with BBC News and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a UK minister promised MPs, in one statement, decisions on several areas or projects by a date the government set itself. We found four such promises since 2021, two of them from this same council programme. Each time at least one area or project got its decision on time. Only in 2021 did all of them.