Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Oct 2026

Will the Lords give the Courts Bill a second reading on 27 Oct?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History71%
Hunch66%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The House of Lords gave the Courts and Tribunals Bill its second reading on 27 October 2026, Lords Hansard records, and the bill's stages page now lists committee stage for 10 and 16 November.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Labour has 233 of the 795 members of the Lords on 14 October, and since 2000 peers let only one of three bills like this pass.

How this resolves

The second reading market resolves on the bill's stages page on the UK Parliament website and the Lords Hansard for 27 October: YES if peers agree to read the bill a second time at that sitting, and NO if they pass an amendment that refuses it or reject the reading. A regret amendment that does not stop the reading does not count, the market is void if the debate is taken off and not finished on 27 October, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

5 of 7
Five of seven times peers debated a government bill that took away jury trials, they let it pass that day. Since 2000 a bill like this passed once in three debates.

We looked for cases where peers had their first big debate, the second reading, on a government bill that for the first time took away jury trials for some crimes, after MPs had passed it. We found seven such bills from 1914 to 2007. Peers let five of them pass that day, and voted to stop two.