Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Oct 2026

Will a peer formally move to block the Courts Bill on 27 Oct?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History43%
Hunch48%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Lords Hansard for 27 October 2026 shows no amendment refusing the Courts and Tribunals Bill a second reading; the only amendment, by Lord Rooker, was to the later committal motion and was withdrawn.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Labour has 233 of the 795 members of the Lords on 14 October, and since 2000 peers moved to block two of three bills like this.

How this resolves

The blocking market resolves on the Lords Hansard and Lords order papers for 27 October: YES if by the end of that sitting any peer has tabled an amendment that refuses the bill a second reading, such as leave out "now" or "this day six months", even if it is later withdrawn, and NO if there is none. A regret amendment does not count, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

5 of 7
Five of seven times peers debated a government bill that took away jury trials, they let it pass that day. Since 2000 a bill like this passed once in three debates.

We looked for cases where peers had their first big debate, the second reading, on a government bill that for the first time took away jury trials for some crimes, after MPs had passed it. We found seven such bills from 1914 to 2007. Peers let five of them pass that day, and voted to stop two.