Hunch. On 13 October 14th became the only film to lead the nominations, and both earlier leaders who won had shared the lead.
The 14th market resolves on the 2026 winners list at criticschoice.com after the 8 November awards: YES if 14th is named Best Documentary Feature, alone or shared with another film, and if the prize is split into gold, silver and bronze, only gold counts. NO if another film wins or 14th gets only silver or bronze, and Deadline and Variety settle it if the official list is late.
We looked for cases where the Critics Choice Association named its best documentary, at each of its ten earlier award nights since 2016, and checked whether the film with the most nominations won. It won twice in ten years. Both times two or three films shared the lead.