Hunch. Jakub Seidler voted to hold in August and September, and on 27 October he said he now leans to a hike. In the eight earlier times, no member who had just backed a hold spoke for a rise.
The rise market resolves on the same statement, whose decision comes out at 14:30: YES if it sets the two-week repo rate above 3.75%, by any step, and NO if the rate stays at 3.75% or goes lower. If that page does not open, Reuters and Financial Times reports settle it together.
We looked for cases where a voting member of the Czech central bank’s board said in public, between two meetings, that he would back a rate change at the next one. We found eight such times from 2022 to 2023, before six meetings. All eight times the member backed a rise.