History. 0 of 4 where the move happened: none of Eastbourne, Banbury, Elgin or Barnstaple had births back 66 days after the move. Glan Clwyd never moved, so it does not count here.
Hunch. By the end of November the trust will have two permanent senior doctors, and its board paper says it needs at least six of its own before births can return.
The restart market resolves on the Southern Trust's Maternity Updates page and its board papers of 28 January 2027: YES if by the end of 28 January 2027 the trust says births and care for women in labour are working again at Daisy Hill as before 23 November, and NO for a restart date after 28 January, a plan with no date, or rare births in the emergency department. It is void if births have not stopped at Daisy Hill by the end of 23 November 2026, and BBC News NI confirms the result, with The Irish News and then the Belfast Telegraph as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK health body planned to move births away from one of its hospitals because it could not hire enough doctors, and named a date at least a week ahead. We found five since 2013, in England, Scotland and Wales. In four the move went ahead with no new date. Once the plan was dropped.