Hunch. Democracia21 launched on 10 and 11 October and no poll has shown it by name yet; new parties the state poll did not name won no seat.
The Democracia21 market resolves on the Interior Ministry's official results for the 29 November election: YES if Democracia21 wins at least one seat in the Congress of Deputies on its own list, and NO if it wins none or does not stand. BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the ministry pages are blocked.
We looked for cases where a new party stood in a Spanish general election for the first time, and the CIS, Spain's state polling centre, recorded it in its poll before the vote, by name or in open answers. We counted whether it won at least one seat. We found eight such parties from 1982 to 2019. Five won seats.