Between 19 September and 13 October 2026 the Federal Register published no presidential document on a $5,000 dividend and GovInfo lists no bill introduced in Congress that creates one, and The Independent reported on 12 October that the administration still had not said how it would pay for the checks.
Hunch. Five of the six mechanisms in this record existed by day four and the sixth by day 33, yet on day nine the Federal Register shows seventeen presidential documents published since 1 September and not one of them mentions a dividend.
The mechanism market resolves on documents, not on interviews. YES if, between 19 September and 13 October 2026, one of the following exists and names $5,000: an executive order or presidential memorandum published by the Federal Register, a written plan or guidance published by the Treasury or the Office of Management and Budget, or a bill introduced in Congress and listed on congress.gov. A minister or adviser describing a funding idea on television resolves NO, and so does any document creating a payment of a different amount. If the Federal Register and congress.gov show nothing by that date, the market resolves NO.
We found eight such promises between 2020 and 2025. We looked for times when a US president announced a direct cash payment but did not say, on the day, how it would work or where the money would come from. We then checked whether a first official plan followed within thirty-three days. That means a signed order or memo, a published Treasury or budget office plan, or a bill with that sum. A minister describing an idea on television does not count. The newest cases come first.