Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Sep 2026

Will a $5,000 dividend bill be introduced before the midterms?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
Hunch10%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

A full-text search of bills published on GovInfo, the official publisher of congressional bills, from 19 September to 2 November 2026 finds no bill or joint resolution with a $5,000 payment to individuals introduced between 19 September and 13 October; congress.gov itself was behind a bot check.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. A bill needs no gatekeeper in the House, but the chamber left to campaign on 18 September and the money behind the promise is being refunded to importers under the Supreme Court ruling.

How this resolves

The bill market resolves on congress.gov. YES if a bill or joint resolution introduced in either chamber between 19 September and 13 October 2026 carries a payment of $5,000 to individuals; the number of co-sponsors and the chance of a vote do not matter. A bill naming a different sum resolves NO. If congress.gov is not updated in time, reports in two of the BBC, the Guardian and Reuters settle it.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
Six of the last eight promises of this kind produced an official mechanism, and the timing is the whole point: day 0, day 0, day 2, day 2, day 4, then day 33. After that the record is empty until 314 days, where the $2,000 tariff dividend of November 2025 still sits with nothing published. The split behind the number matters more than the number: where the executive already controlled the money, a mechanism appeared 3 times out of 3; where a new law was needed with nothing already moving through Congress, 1 time out of 3, and that once took a national emergency.

We found eight such promises between 2020 and 2025. We looked for times when a US president announced a direct cash payment but did not say, on the day, how it would work or where the money would come from. We then checked whether a first official plan followed within thirty-three days. That means a signed order or memo, a published Treasury or budget office plan, or a bill with that sum. A minister describing an idea on television does not count. The newest cases come first.