The US Department of Energy petroleum reserves news page, checked on 14 October 2026, has no statement dated 6 to 13 October announcing loan contracts under the 29 September offer; its only new item, on 10 October, authorises a separate 4m-barrel hurricane exchange for ExxonMobil and BP.
History. 4 of 6 cases. In 2021 companies took 15%, in June 2026 about 1%.
Hunch. The same 40 million barrels were offered in June and companies took about 500,000 of them (Reuters, 29 Sep 2026), the closest case in time and size.
Resolves on the US Department of Energy petroleum reserves news page, checked on 14 October 2026 at 10:00 UK time: YES if a department statement dated 6 to 13 October 2026 announces loan contracts under the 29 September offer for more than 20 million barrels. Exactly 20 million or fewer, or no statement by 13 October, resolves NO. Reuters is the backup only for finding the statement.
We looked for cases where the US government offered to lend a set amount of oil from its emergency reserve, set a date for bids, and let the companies' bids decide how much went out. We counted only offers made together with other countries. We found six, one in 2021 and five this year. Companies took more than half of what was offered in four. They never took all of it.