History. 2 of 4: pauses came after 45 and 53 days; one request was refused and one pause took 108 days.
Hunch. The justice department has not yet asked for a pause, and in past fights it took four weeks or more just to reach the Supreme Court.
The December pause market resolves on the same dockets: YES if by the end of 1 December 2026 a higher court pauses the 9 October ruling until the appeal is decided, and NO if there is no pause or the request is refused. A short administrative pause does not count, and Reuters and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a federal judge blocked a US government policy after a higher court had already paused an earlier ruling by that same judge. We found four since 2017, two under Donald Trump and two under Joe Biden. Each time the government asked a higher court to pause the new ruling.