History. 5 of 5: no scheme was changed in its first six weeks; the three with set waves kept every date.
Hunch. Andy Burnham has already delayed and cut this scheme once under pressure from victims, and hostels are now closing.
The wave market resolves on SI 2026/953 and any later SI on legislation.gov.uk: YES if the 10 November 2026 wave comes into force, even with some offences removed, and NO if it is moved, paused or cancelled first. BBC News and The Guardian confirm it.
We looked for cases where a government in England and Wales or Scotland let prisoners out early to free up space, and checked whether it changed the plan once it began. We found five since 2007, three in England and Wales and two in Scotland.