History. 0 of 5: no scheme was narrowed in its first six weeks; the one narrowing, in 2008, came after nine months.
Hunch. Andy Burnham has already narrowed this scheme once, saying he listened to victims.
The narrowing market resolves on legislation.gov.uk and Ministry of Justice statements: YES if before 10 November more offences are excluded or fewer prisoners set for release, and NO if not. Moving the wave alone does not count.
We looked for cases where a government in England and Wales or Scotland let prisoners out early to free up space, and checked whether it changed the plan once it began. We found five since 2007, three in England and Wales and two in Scotland.