Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Oct 2026

Will the government promise more probation hostels by 10 Nov?

BinaryResolves 13 Nov 2026
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 13 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from past schemes: hostel places were not recorded in them. The checker compares Hunch with the page base of 5 of 5.

Hunch. Asked about the closures on 7 October, the Ministry of Justice pointed to probation money and new officers, with no word on hostels.

How this resolves

The hostel market resolves on Ministry of Justice statements on gov.uk: YES if before 10 November it announces money or a plan to reopen or add approved premises, and NO if not. Money already announced does not count.

The pattern behind it

5 of 5
Five of five times the government kept its plan unchanged for the first six weeks. Schemes were changed only later, after five and nine months.

We looked for cases where a government in England and Wales or Scotland let prisoners out early to free up space, and checked whether it changed the plan once it began. We found five since 2007, three in England and Wales and two in Scotland.