History. 2 of 4 is an upper bound for either of the two: in every past choice there was one favourite, now there are two level.
Hunch. Two favourites are level, and on 29 October POLITICO reported that France wants the chief economist job, which could work against the Spanish candidate.
The Hernández de Cos market resolves on the European Council decision in the Official Journal of the EU and the ECB press release: YES if leaders formally appoint him as Lagarde's successor, NO if they appoint anyone else. A recommendation from finance ministers or a political agreement does not count, and with no decision by 7 February it waits until 30 June 2027, with POLITICO and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where EU leaders chose a new president of the European Central Bank. There have been four such choices since the bank opened in 1998. For each we noted who the newspapers named as the favourite when the race began, and whether that person got the job. (EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex)