Hunch. Germany's chancellor Friedrich Merz said on 29 October that he expects EU leaders to choose Lagarde's successor by the end of the year.
The 7 February market resolves YES if the European Council decision appointing the next ECB president is dated 7 February 2027 or earlier. A name agreed at a summit without the formal decision is NO, and POLITICO and The Guardian settle it if the official pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where EU leaders chose a new president of the European Central Bank. There have been four such choices since the bank opened in 1998. For each we noted who the newspapers named as the favourite when the race began, and whether that person got the job. (EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex)